How a verdict is set, and what it is not
Nine conditions, not predictions
The nine trackers follow conditions that would have to hold for the AI build-out to keep being financed. They are conditions, not predictions. Each verdict is computed from dated, sourced signals. The nine questions on the home page are:
- Can they actually plug it all in?
- Is borrowing still cheap enough to build?
- Are governments slowing it down?
- Can anyone pay for all these data centers?
- Will one of the big AI labs go public?
- Are the AI labs actually making money?
- Is the rally still tied to earnings?
- Is AI making ordinary companies more productive?
- Is anyone actually using AI agents?
Thresholds
Each row names whoever stated the threshold and links to the source. Where a threshold was spoken rather than written, the quotation is transcribed from the linked recording with filler words removed; nothing inside quotation marks is paraphrased. Where no quotable figure was found, the row says the wording is the map’s own.
The 5% borrowing warning
On the row “Is borrowing still cheap enough to build?”, the 5% borrowing warning is the map’s own example, not a general rule.
What the labels mean
Under pressure means a major dated event points against it. Holding up means qualifying evidence only points toward it. Not enough evidence yet means nothing has cleared the bar, and that is a real answer.
What never counts
Analyst estimates, reported internal projections and unconfirmed reports never count. A signal stops counting after 90 days.
Green, yellow and red
What green, yellow and red mean is in Signal status, the Pulse feed and the thesis tracker.
Not a rating, a forecast, or a recommendation
A verdict is not a rating, a forecast, or a recommendation.
Briefings
Briefings are generated from cited sources without individual human review before publication. Briefings and publication dates.