AEACTS OF EVOLUTION

THE AI ECONOMY, MAPPED

Is AI going to
boom or bust?

Track the nine conditions the AI economy rests on — then go inside the map and see the companies building it.

Explore the AI universe The 9 Trackers
144 companies · 13 sectors · 543 sourced relationships

THE AI UNIVERSE

Boom or bust is an argument.
What is being built is a fact.

AI is not one industry. It is a chain: power stations, fabrication equipment, chips, memory, data centers, cloud platforms, models, software, and the machines that put it all into the physical world. The map shows that chain as it actually stands — every company in its layer, every connection with the source and the date attached.

Start anywhere. Click NVIDIA and see who makes its chips, who buys them and who competes. Click a power company and see which data centers it feeds. That is the part of the boom-or-bust question you can check for yourself.

Open the map Or browse the database

Two corners of it have maps of their own, linked from inside: robotics and physical AI and space and orbital infrastructure.

144companies
13sectors of the AI stack
543sourced relationships
v3.22release · 25 Sep 2026

THE TRACKERS · EVIDENCE AS OF 25 SEP 2026

9 things that would have to be true.

Nine conditions that would have to hold for the AI build-out to keep being financed. They come from people close to how this is actually financed and built, and conditions — unlike opinions — can be checked, so each one is tracked here against dated, sourced events. Every row names whoever stated it and links to where. The verdict moves when the evidence does.

Right now: 3 under pressure, 1 mixed, 1 holding up and 4 not enough evidence yet.

3 under pressure1 mixed1 holding up4 not enough evidence yet
  1. Under pressureCan they actually plug it all in?Against Oracle sends force majeure notice on Project Jupiter as the site's gas pipeline slips to February 2027 24 Sep 2026

    A chip is useless without power, a building and a grid connection. This row tracks whether the physical build-out lands anywhere near the pace the spending assumes.

    About 25 GW of new AI compute actually comes online in 2027, against SemiAnalysis’s 43 GW forecast. In his words: “I would suggest Dylan’s forecast to 43 gigawatt next year is too aggressive … I think the total amount we’re actually going to stand up is somewhere closer to 25 gigawatt.” The limits he named: permitting and local opposition, grid interconnection delays, skilled labor shortages and sold-out power equipment.

    Stated by Brad Gerstner (Altimeter Capital), All-In Summit, 15 Sep 2026 · source ↗ · by 31 Dec 2027

    Next check-in: State permitting actions (Texas audit outcome, Virginia 2027 legislation); utility interconnection announcements.

    Open this row in the full tracker →

  2. Under pressureIs borrowing still cheap enough to build?Against US 10-year Treasury yield crosses 5% for the first time since 2007 23 Sep 2026

    Data centers are built with borrowed money. When long-term interest rates rise, every project gets more expensive to finance, whatever the demand looks like.

    The 10-year Treasury yield stays below about 5.5%, and oil retreats. In his words: “If rates were to go to five and a half on the 10-year, that’s going to be a big burden … on the equity market,” and “rates are following oil prices to a certain extent.” He gave no numeric level for oil. The 5% warning level on this row is AI Map’s own, set in advance.

    Stated by Brad Gerstner (Altimeter Capital), All-In Summit, 15 Sep 2026 · source ↗

    Next check-in: Next FOMC meeting (late October 2026); weekly 10-year yield and oil price.

    Open this row in the full tracker →

  3. Under pressureAre governments slowing it down?Against Maryland becomes the fourth state in six days to act on data centers, matching Virginia's template 23 Sep 2026

    States and countries are writing the rules for data centers now — power, water, permits, tax. The condition is not that nothing happens, but that what happens adds cost and process without stopping the build-out.

    Rules on AI and data centers add cost and process without halting the build-out. In his words: “Regulation’s a threat. It’s a risk.” He called for “common sense, pragmatic solutions,” pointed to the 67 fission reactors shut down after activist pressure, and said: “Can’t allow this to occur to AI.”

    Stated by Brad Gerstner (Altimeter Capital), All-In Summit, 15 Sep 2026 · source ↗

    Next check-in: Texas audit completion (possibly late 2026); Virginia 2027 legislative session; other states following.

    Open this row in the full tracker →

  4. MixedCan anyone pay for all these data centers?Against Oracle sends force majeure notice on Project Jupiter as the site's gas pipeline slips to February 2027 24 Sep 2026

    The largest technology companies are spending on a scale normally seen in railways and oil. The question is whether the money coming back from AI arrives quickly enough to cover it.

    Revenue from the labs renting AI capacity grows fast enough to pay for the build-out. In his words: “If you’re going to build a trillion and a half dollars a year in capex, somebody has to pay for it … Microsoft’s not paying for it. They’re building it to rent it.” He said that revenue has to go from about $200B at the end of 2026 “to 450 to 800 or a trillion dollars just to keep up.”

    Stated by Brad Gerstner (Altimeter Capital), All-In Summit, 15 Sep 2026 · source ↗

    Next check-in: Hyperscaler Q3 2026 earnings and capex guidance (late October); lab financing disclosures.

    Open this row in the full tracker →

  5. Holding upIs the rally still tied to earnings?Toward Broadcom's AI chip revenue rises 221% to $16.7B, and it guides to $21.7B next quarter 2 Sep 2026

    The claim being tested is that this does not look like 2000, because the gains come from rising profits rather than rising valuations. That is checkable every quarter.

    Market gains stay driven by earnings rather than rising valuations. In his words: “This is not about multiple expansion. This is an earnings driven market expansion,” with NVIDIA at “14 times next year’s fully taxed GAAP earnings. This is no bubble like it was in 2000.” He also flagged that semiconductors were 70% of the Nasdaq’s return, “both good and bad.”

    Stated by Brad Gerstner (Altimeter Capital), All-In Summit, 15 Sep 2026 · source ↗

    Next check-in: Q3 2026 earnings season; index concentration data.

    Open this row in the full tracker →

  6. Not enough evidence yetAre the AI labs actually making money?Nothing has yet cleared the bar this tracker requires. That is a real answer, not a gap.

    Almost everything else rests on this. The data centers, the chips and the power deals are all being financed against an expectation that the companies making AI models grow revenue very fast. This row tracks whether they do.

    The top three AI labs lift combined annualized revenue from about $100B (July 2026) to at least $180B by the end of 2026. In his words: “I think they need to collectively get to at least $180 billion by the end of the year … just to keep the AI trade intact.” He put the takeoff case at about $8B a month for a leading lab, against $4B.

    Stated by Brad Gerstner (Altimeter Capital), All-In Summit, 15 Sep 2026 · source ↗ · by 31 Dec 2026

    No signal has cleared the bar for this row yet. The tracker counts published, dated events from the last 90 days, and analyst estimates and reported internal projections never count toward a verdict.

    Next check-in: Next disclosed or credibly reported monthly run-rate from OpenAI and Anthropic.

    Open this row in the full tracker →

  7. Not enough evidence yetWill one of the big AI labs go public?Nothing has yet cleared the bar this tracker requires. That is a real answer, not a gap.

    A listing would force a frontier lab to publish real numbers on a schedule. Whatever it did for the share price, it would replace a lot of guesswork with filings.

    A frontier-lab IPO goes ahead this year without a halt or postponement. In his words: “I think we are going to see an IPO this year,” and a halt or postponement of the Anthropic IPO “would obviously be a major issue. I don’t think that’s going to happen.”

    Stated by Brad Gerstner (Altimeter Capital), All-In Summit, 15 Sep 2026 · source ↗

    No signal has cleared the bar for this row yet. The tracker counts published, dated events from the last 90 days, and analyst estimates and reported internal projections never count toward a verdict.

    Next check-in: Anthropic IPO filing/pricing news; OpenAI listing plans (Altman has said no IPO in 2026).

    Open this row in the full tracker →

  8. Not enough evidence yetIs AI making ordinary companies more productive?Nothing has yet cleared the bar this tracker requires. That is a real answer, not a gap.

    Not whether people use it — whether it shows up in what companies actually report. This is the difference between AI as a cost and AI as a return.

    AI lifts companies’ margin expansion from the historical ~38 basis points a year toward ~100. In his words: “Can we turn the 38 bips to 100 bips of margin expansion because of AI? The answer is obviously yes.” His examples were companies growing revenue without growing headcount.

    Stated by Brad Gerstner (Altimeter Capital), All-In Summit, 15 Sep 2026 · source ↗

    No signal has cleared the bar for this row yet. The tracker counts published, dated events from the last 90 days, and analyst estimates and reported internal projections never count toward a verdict.

    Next check-in: Q3 2026 earnings commentary on AI-driven margins.

    Open this row in the full tracker →

  9. Not enough evidence yetIs anyone actually using AI agents?Nothing has yet cleared the bar this tracker requires. That is a real answer, not a gap.

    Launches and download estimates are easy. This row waits for something a company discloses itself: sustained use, paid conversion, or revenue broken out.

    Consumer AI agents become a real, token-hungry category. In his words: “We’re going to have consumer agents in everybody’s pocket … This could be another trillion dollar category, but it’s definitely going to consume massive tokens.” AI Map counts only company-disclosed usage, paid conversion or transactions toward this row, not downloads.

    Stated by Brad Gerstner (Altimeter Capital), All-In Summit, 15 Sep 2026 · source ↗

    Next check-in: A company-disclosed usage, subscriber or transaction figure for a consumer agent (Meta, OpenAI or Anthropic), or a quarter in which agent revenue is broken out.

    Open this row in the full tracker →

These are conditions AI Map tracks, not predictions and not our opinion of whether any of it is a good idea. Each row names whoever stated the threshold and links to where they said it; where the wording is our own paraphrase, the row says so. We are not affiliated with, endorsed by or reviewed by anyone cited. A row reads under pressure when a major dated event points against it, holding up when the qualifying evidence only points toward it, and not enough evidence yet when nothing has cleared the bar. Analyst estimates and reported internal projections never move a verdict, unconfirmed reports are never published, and a signal stops counting after 90 days. It is not a rating, a forecast, or a recommendation about any company or security. How a verdict is set, and what it is not.

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YOUR TURN

So what’s your opinion?

The trackers say what the evidence says. They do not say how this ends. What do you think happens?

One answer, no email, nothing stored in your browser except which box you ticked. Results are collected privately and may appear in a future briefing.

JUMP TO A LAYER OF THE AI STACK

THE DATABASE

Search, filter and research every company on the map.

Real tickers where a company is publicly traded, plain-English profiles of what each one actually does, its competitors and same-layer peers, and every connection with its source — so you can go from "what is this company" to "how does it fit in" in one click.

Select up to 3 companies to compare.

144 companies

Company Ticker / status AI stack position AI exposure
01 / MISSION

MAKE THE AI ECONOMY VISIBLE

Most people see products.
We map the system beneath them.

AI is not one industry. It is a chain of power generation, fabrication equipment, chips, data centers, cloud platforms, models, software and physical machines. This database — and the relationship map behind it — show how those layers depend on one another, and the evidence behind every connection.

01

Map relationships

Follow suppliers, customers, partners, investments, ownership and competition across the full AI stack.

02

Show the evidence

Every published connection is tied to a readable source, date, classification and statement of its limits.

03

Separate signal from hype

Current operations, dated announcements and competitive comparisons stay visibly distinct, and every record carries the date its evidence was published and the date it was last reviewed.

04

Explain it plainly

Built for intelligent non-specialists who want the system without reading hundreds of filings.

FOUNDER'S NOTE

“AI optimism
without bullshit.”

Acts of Evolution is an independent educational research project founded by Steven Dudley. It begins with a simple question: what is actually being built, why does it matter, and how are the companies building it connected?

We cover opportunity and constraint with equal seriousness. Inclusion in this database is not an endorsement of a company or its securities.

OR FOLLOW ALONG

The short version, on your feed.

Every briefing gets a post with the same discipline as the map: the claim, the source and the date. The long version, with the evidence and the limits, always lives here.

A CURATED, EXPANDING MAP OF THE AI ECONOMY

See how all 144 companies connect.

Open the relationship map