Largest first, by the size of the figure in the published signal. Not a judgement of the company. Figures from the 90 days before 18 Oct 2026.
Trades
Anthropic says it signed a long-term lease for the first 95 MW phase of EverWind's planned Point Tupper, Nova Scotia data center campus, due in late 2027
On 16 October 2026 EverWind announced a planned data center campus at Point Tupper, Nova Scotia, starting with a 95 MW phase in late 2027 and a 325 MW expansion targeted for 2028, and said it had reached a long-term lease agreement with a leading frontier AI developer for the first phase.
Character.AI files for Chapter 11 and puts itself up for sale
Character Technologies, the company behind Character.AI, opened a voluntary Chapter 11 case in Delaware on 12 Oct 2026 for a court-supervised sale of all or substantially all of its assets.
Companies with a substantial signal this week, newest first.
Mixed. AnthropicAI modelsAnthropic says it signed a long-term lease for the first 95 MW phase of EverWind's planned Point Tupper, Nova Scotia data center campus, due in late 2027
Tracking. MicrosoftCloudNiSource says Microsoft signed a 20-year energy agreement that adds about 1,100 MW of new generation for its northwest Indiana data center campus from 2028
Tracking. TSMCChipsTSMC raises its 2026 sales growth outlook to about 44% after third-quarter revenue of $46.72 billion topped its guidance, and says demand stays strong
Tracking. ASMLChipsASML says AI-driven demand will exceed its planned chip-tool supply in 2027 and 2028, after what it called record third-quarter sales of 11.7 billion euros
Tracking. American Electric Power (AEP)PowerAEP plans to invest about $4 billion in a 702 MW Bloom fuel cell plant near Cheyenne, Wyoming, to supply Google under a 20-year power purchase agreement
Tracking. CamtekChipsCamtek says strong demand for AI chip packaging gives it an initial 2027 revenue outlook of over $800 million, after what it called record third-quarter revenue
Tracking. Google (Alphabet subsidiary)CloudAEP plans to invest about $4 billion in a 702 MW Bloom fuel cell plant near Cheyenne, Wyoming, to supply Google under a 20-year power purchase agreement
Tracking. Meta PlatformsAI modelsMeta is named as the company behind a proposed Mason County, Kentucky data center campus, with a county-stated $10 billion initial investment and a 396 MW first phase per a 6 October summary document
The AI economy in six AI divisions plus the money band
From the power plant to your phone. Each division takes the colour held by the most rated companies.
Power
Tracking
Electricity for the data centers, and the grid that carries it.
AEP plans to invest about $4 billion in a 702 MW Bloom fuel cell plant near Cheyenne, Wyoming, to supply Google under a 20-year power purchase agreement
The companies that rent computing power to AI labs and businesses.
NiSource says Microsoft signed a 20-year energy agreement that adds about 1,100 MW of new generation for its northwest Indiana data center campus from 2028
Anthropic says it signed a long-term lease for the first 95 MW phase of EverWind's planned Point Tupper, Nova Scotia data center campus, due in late 2027
Green is Tracking, yellow is Mixed, and red is Cracking. Grey is Not enough evidence, which means the division has no rated company. Rated companies are green, yellow or red. The division takes the colour held by the most of them. A tie is Mixed. On a grey card, the latest story is the newest substantial signal in that division. It is not the reason for the status.
AI Universe vs NASDAQ
Will the AI Universe finish this week ahead of the NASDAQ?
Boom or bust is an argument. What is being built is a fact.
AI is not one industry. It is a chain: power stations, fabrication equipment, chips, memory, data centers, cloud platforms, models, software, and the machines that put it all into the physical world. The map shows that chain as it actually stands — every company in its layer, every connection with the source and the date attached.
Start anywhere. Click NVIDIA and see who makes its chips, who buys them and who competes. Click a power company and see which data centers it feeds. That is the part of the boom-or-bust question you can check for yourself.
This is general information, not investment advice.
What it never contains: tips, price targets, ratings, or anything that reads as investment advice. This is a research map, not a newsletter about what to buy.
Nine conditions that would have to hold for the AI build-out to keep being financed. They come from people close to how this is actually financed and built, and conditions — unlike opinions — can be checked, so each one is tracked here against dated, sourced events. Every row names whoever stated it and links to where. The verdict moves when the evidence does.
Right now: 3 cracking, 3 mixed, 1 tracking and 2 not enough evidence.
3 cracking3 mixed1 tracking2 not enough evidence
CrackingCan they actually plug it all in?Toward NiSource says Microsoft signed a 20-year energy agreement that adds about 1,100 MW of new generation for its northwest Indiana data center campus from 2028 16 Oct 2026+
A chip is useless without power, a building and a grid connection. This row tracks whether the physical build-out lands anywhere near the pace the spending assumes.
About 25 GW of new AI compute actually comes online in 2027, against SemiAnalysis’s 43 GW forecast. In his words: “I would suggest Dylan’s forecast to 43 gigawatt next year is too aggressive … I think the total amount we’re actually going to stand up is somewhere closer to 25 gigawatt.” The limits he named: permitting and local opposition, grid interconnection delays, skilled labor shortages and sold-out power equipment.
Stated by Brad Gerstner (Altimeter Capital), All-In Summit, 15 Sep 2026 · source ↗ · by 31 Dec 2027
Supports29 Sep 2026 Broadcom-TOPPAN joint venture AST opens Singapore's first high-end FC-BGA substrate facility; production targeted for December 2026 AST via Singapore EDB ↗
Supports30 Sep 2026 HPE discloses a 1.2 billion dollar Vultr order for AMD Helios AI racks, its first Helios order HPE (Business Wire syndication) ↗
Supports30 Sep 2026 CoreWeave says NVIDIA Vera Rubin NVL72 is in production on its cloud, with Cognition as the first production customer CoreWeave (investor newsroom) ↗
Supports14 Sep 2026 Meta expands Eagle Mountain Utah data center; Utah investment above 3 billion dollars Meta Data Centers ↗
Supports29 Sep 2026 NRC issues first U.S. construction permit for a BWRX-300 at TVA Clinch River; GE Vernova Hitachi design GE Vernova ↗
Supports2 Oct 2026 Applied Digital brings Polaris Forge 1 to 250 MW operational critical IT load after adding 75 MW Applied Digital ↗
Supports1 Oct 2026 Dell, JERA and RHAELM sign an MoU for a Japan AI-infrastructure model, tied to a Chiba project of up to 400 MW JERA ↗
Supports1 Oct 2026 Michigan approves DTE contracts to power a Google data center, including up to 1,600 MW of renewables and 480 MW of storage Michigan Public Service Commission ↗
Supports30 Sep 2026 Constellation and Amazon sign a 20-year PPA for 690 MW at Calvert Cliffs, including about 190 MW of new capacity Constellation Energy ↗
Supports30 Sep 2026 Nebius signs for 50 MW of critical IT capacity at an AIB southeastern U.S. data center AIB Data Centers (GlobeNewswire) ↗
Supports2 Oct 2026 Oracle commits to absorb about $300 million of Point Beach nuclear costs for Wisconsin ratepayers, subject to PSC approval Oracle (PR Newswire) ↗
Minor18 Oct 2026 Microsoft ends its deal at Nscale's planned Loughton AI data center after the grid operator said it could not supply enough power until the early to mid-2030s, UK media report BBC News: Microsoft pulls out of UK's largest AI data centre ↗
Next check-in: State permitting actions (Texas audit outcome, Virginia 2027 legislation); utility interconnection announcements.
CrackingIs borrowing still cheap enough to build?Against US 10-year Treasury yield crosses 5% for the first time since 2007 23 Sep 2026+
Data centers are built with borrowed money. When long-term interest rates rise, every project gets more expensive to finance, whatever the demand looks like.
The 10-year Treasury yield stays below about 5.5%, and oil retreats. In his words: “If rates were to go to five and a half on the 10-year, that’s going to be a big burden … on the equity market,” and “rates are following oil prices to a certain extent.” He gave no numeric level for oil. The 5% warning level on this row is AI Map’s own, set in advance.
CrackingAre governments slowing it down?Against FERC rejects the core of PJM's large-load plan, keeping only a 50 MW definition and a registry 9 Oct 2026+
States and countries are writing the rules for data centers now — power, water, permits, tax. The condition is not that nothing happens, but that what happens adds cost and process without stopping the build-out.
Rules on AI and data centers add cost and process without halting the build-out. In his words: “Regulation’s a threat. It’s a risk.” He called for “common sense, pragmatic solutions,” pointed to the 67 fission reactors shut down after activist pressure, and said: “Can’t allow this to occur to AI.”
Against30 Sep 2026 FTC confirms an investigation into OpenAI, Anthropic and other AI companies over consumer risks; civil investigative demands reported within weeks Associated Press (via Spectrum News) ↗
Against29 Sep 2026 FERC suspends PJM's 6.8 GW emergency power procurement to 28 February 2027 PJM Inside Lines ↗
MixedAre the AI labs actually making money?Against OpenAI's annualized revenue is roughly $50bn, not the ~$68-70bn reported in September, per FT, Bloomberg and CNBC 8 Oct 2026+
Almost everything else rests on this. The data centers, the chips and the power deals are all being financed against an expectation that the companies making AI models grow revenue very fast. This row tracks whether they do.
The top three AI labs lift combined annualized revenue from about $100B (July 2026) to at least $180B by the end of 2026. In his words: “I think they need to collectively get to at least $180 billion by the end of the year … just to keep the AI trade intact.” He put the takeoff case at about $8B a month for a leading lab, against $4B.
Stated by Brad Gerstner (Altimeter Capital), All-In Summit, 15 Sep 2026 · source ↗ · by 31 Dec 2026
Supports29 Sep 2026 OpenAI's annualized recurring revenue nears 70 billion dollars, up more than 70% since July, per Axios and a Reuters source Axios ↗
Next check-in: Next disclosed or credibly reported monthly run-rate from OpenAI and Anthropic.
MixedCan anyone pay for all these data centers?Against Broadcom to lend Anthropic up to $42 billion to lease its chips, prospectus shows (Reuters) 1 Oct 2026+
The largest technology companies are spending on a scale normally seen in railways and oil. The question is whether the money coming back from AI arrives quickly enough to cover it.
Revenue from the labs renting AI capacity grows fast enough to pay for the build-out. In his words: “If you’re going to build a trillion and a half dollars a year in capex, somebody has to pay for it … Microsoft’s not paying for it. They’re building it to rent it.” He said that revenue has to go from about $200B at the end of 2026 “to 450 to 800 or a trillion dollars just to keep up.”
Against28 Sep 2026 Anthropic's IPO prospectus, reviewed by Reuters, shows 518 billion dollars of future cloud and compute obligations against 4.6 billion dollars of 2025 revenue Reuters (via Yahoo Finance) ↗
Against29 Sep 2026 Anthropic's 518 billion dollars of compute obligations, split by partner in its draft prospectus: about 80% is non-cancelable or payable regardless of usage Reuters (via KSL.com syndication) ↗
Against1 Oct 2026 Broadcom to lend Anthropic up to $42 billion to lease its chips, prospectus shows (Reuters) Reuters (via The Star syndication) ↗
Supports30 Sep 2026 SoftBank completes acquisition of DigitalBridge for about 3.1 billion dollars; DigitalBridge becomes a controlled subsidiary SoftBank Group (press release) ↗
Minor1 Oct 2026 SoftBank completes its 30 billion dollar OpenAI follow-on with the final 10 billion dollar tranche; cumulative investment 64.6 billion dollars, about 13%; bridge loan repaid SoftBank Group press release ↗
Minor2 Oct 2026 Broadcom's banks begin raising $60 billion of debt for AI chips for Anthropic and others; Blackstone leads $18 billion junior tranche (Bloomberg) Dataconomy, reporting Bloomberg News ↗
MixedWill one of the big AI labs go public?Against OpenAI's CEO rules out a 2026 IPO, calling now an ill-advised moment to go public 12 Sep 2026+
A listing would force a frontier lab to publish real numbers on a schedule. Whatever it did for the share price, it would replace a lot of guesswork with filings.
A frontier-lab IPO goes ahead this year without a halt or postponement. In his words: “I think we are going to see an IPO this year,” and a halt or postponement of the Anthropic IPO “would obviously be a major issue. I don’t think that’s going to happen.”
TrackingIs the rally still tied to earnings?Toward TSMC raises its 2026 sales growth outlook to about 44% after third-quarter revenue of $46.72 billion topped its guidance, and says demand stays strong 15 Oct 2026+
The claim being tested is that this does not look like 2000, because the gains come from rising profits rather than rising valuations. That is checkable every quarter.
Market gains stay driven by earnings rather than rising valuations. In his words: “This is not about multiple expansion. This is an earnings driven market expansion,” with NVIDIA at “14 times next year’s fully taxed GAAP earnings. This is no bubble like it was in 2000.” He also flagged that semiconductors were 70% of the Nasdaq’s return, “both good and bad.”
Supports30 Sep 2026 Micron's fiscal Q4 revenue reaches 54.2 billion dollars, up from 11.3 billion a year earlier, at an 87% gross margin; next quarter guided to 61.5 billion Micron Technology (press release via GlobeNewswire) ↗
Not enough evidenceIs AI making ordinary companies more productive?Nothing has yet cleared the bar this tracker requires. That is a real answer, not a gap.+
Not whether people use it — whether it shows up in what companies actually report. This is the difference between AI as a cost and AI as a return.
AI lifts companies’ margin expansion from the historical ~38 basis points a year toward ~100. In his words: “Can we turn the 38 bips to 100 bips of margin expansion because of AI? The answer is obviously yes.” His examples were companies growing revenue without growing headcount.
No signal has cleared the bar for this row yet. The tracker counts published, dated events from the last 90 days, and analyst estimates and reported internal projections never count toward a verdict.
Next check-in: Q3 2026 earnings commentary on AI-driven margins.
Not enough evidenceIs anyone actually using AI agents?Nothing has yet cleared the bar this tracker requires. That is a real answer, not a gap.+
Launches and download estimates are easy. This row waits for something a company discloses itself: sustained use, paid conversion, or revenue broken out.
Consumer AI agents become a real, token-hungry category. In his words: “We’re going to have consumer agents in everybody’s pocket … This could be another trillion dollar category, but it’s definitely going to consume massive tokens.” AI Map counts only company-disclosed usage, paid conversion or transactions toward this row, not downloads.
No signal has cleared the bar for this row yet. The tracker counts published, dated events from the last 90 days, and analyst estimates and reported internal projections never count toward a verdict.
Next check-in: A company-disclosed usage, subscriber or transaction figure for a consumer agent (Meta, OpenAI or Anthropic), or a quarter in which agent revenue is broken out.
These are conditions AI Map tracks, not predictions and not our opinion of whether any of it is a good idea. Each row names whoever stated the threshold and links to where they said it; where the wording is our own paraphrase, the row says so. We are not affiliated with, endorsed by or reviewed by anyone cited. A row reads cracking when a major dated event points against it, tracking when the qualifying evidence only points toward it, and not enough evidence when nothing has cleared the bar. Analyst estimates and reported internal projections never move a verdict, unconfirmed reports are never published, and a signal stops counting after 90 days. It is not a rating, a forecast, or a recommendation about any company or security. How a verdict is set, and what it is not.
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1X TechnologiesNorway (Moss) / United States (San Francisco Bay Area)
Most people see products. We map the system beneath them.
AI is not one industry. It is a chain of power generation, fabrication equipment, chips, data centers, cloud platforms, models, software and physical machines. This database — and the relationship map behind it — show how those layers depend on one another, and the evidence behind every connection.
01
Map relationships
Follow suppliers, customers, partners, investments, ownership and competition across the full AI stack.
02
Show the evidence
Every published connection is tied to a readable source, date, classification and statement of its limits.
03
Separate signal from hype
Current operations, dated announcements and competitive comparisons stay visibly distinct, and every record carries the date its evidence was published and the date it was last reviewed.
04
Explain it plainly
Built for intelligent non-specialists who want the system without reading hundreds of filings.
FOUNDER'S NOTE
“AI optimism without bullshit.”
Acts of Evolution is an independent educational research project founded by Steven Dudley. It begins with a simple question: what is actually being built, why does it matter, and how are the companies building it connected?
We cover opportunity and constraint with equal seriousness. Inclusion in this database is not an endorsement of a company or its securities.
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This is general information, not investment advice.
What it never contains: tips, price targets, ratings, or anything that reads as investment advice. This is a research map, not a newsletter about what to buy.
Every briefing gets a post with the same discipline as the map: the claim, the source and the date. The long version, with the evidence and the limits, always lives here.