BRIEFINGS · Lab revenue
OpenAI's run rate is roughly $50bn, not the $70bn reported last month
The FT, Bloomberg and CNBC put OpenAI's annualized revenue near $50bn. CNBC's source says the earlier ~$70bn counted partner sales gross, as Anthropic does.
OpenAI told investors its annualized revenue was approaching $50 billion at the end of September, the Financial Times reported on 8 October, citing documents shared with investors. Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the matter, put it at roughly $50 billion. CNBC said it confirmed the figure through a person familiar, and Reuters had the same from one source. OpenAI did not respond to Bloomberg or Reuters. All of this rests on anonymous sourcing.
The FT said that is about $20 billion less than previously signalled. On 29 September Axios reported, from sources familiar with the financials, that OpenAI's run rate was nearing $70 billion, and CNBC says a $68 billion figure was widely reported. AI Map reported the near-$70 billion figure at the time. This update changes how that number should be read.
Why the gap. CNBC's source and Axios put it down to what gets counted, not lost sales. The person told CNBC the $68 billion included gross revenue from OpenAI's partners, built so investors could compare OpenAI directly with Anthropic. Axios, citing accounting professor Francine McKenna, explained the difference: when a customer pays $100 for an AI service through a cloud provider, Anthropic books the full $100 as revenue and the provider's cut as a cost, while OpenAI records only its share of certain partner sales. So the roughly $50 billion is OpenAI's own, narrower measure.
The growth is still there. CNBC's source said OpenAI's investor presentation also showed 77% run-rate growth in the third quarter and 107% for the enterprise business.
How we read it. This counts against the lab-revenue condition, which had rested on the near-$70 billion figure, and that test is now mixed: the trend is up, but the level is lower than the market was told, and OpenAI has published no figure. OpenAI stays yellow. Nothing turns red.
What would change this: OpenAI publishing its own run rate or revenue, an IPO filing with audited figures, or Anthropic reporting on a net basis so the two can be compared.
What this evidence does not establish
Annualized revenue projects a recent period over a full year; it is not audited revenue. Every figure comes from anonymous sources or documents seen by reporters, and OpenAI has not published or confirmed a run rate. No source we found gives the size of the partner revenue behind the gap. Anthropic counts revenue differently, so the two labs' headline figures are not like for like. Share-price moves excluded.
What to watch next
- OpenAI publishing its own run rate or monthly revenue
- Audited figures in an OpenAI or Anthropic IPO filing
- Anthropic disclosing revenue on a net basis
- OpenAI closing its reported funding round
Sources
- Nvidia, Oracle, CoreWeave and other AI stocks sink on OpenAI revenue report8 October 2026
- OpenAI's Revenue Run Rate Nears $50 Billion, Less Than Reported8 October 2026
- OpenAI annualised revenue closer to US$50 billion than reported US$70 billion: FT9 October 2026
- OpenAI annualized revenue $20 billion less than previously reported8 October 2026
- Scoop: OpenAI's annual recurring revenue nears $70B29 September 2026
Every figure above comes from these sources. Every briefing is checked against its sources before it publishes. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell anything, and Acts of Evolution is not an investment adviser. See the disclosures.
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